In and around Kherson, where fighting has been very heavy, they’ve faced a blistering Ukrainian attack and now have their backs to a wide river with only two damaged bridges as an escape. If they can get across (probably without their trucks or tanks, which means they only have what they can carry) they are then pretty much in Crimea… which has just been cut off on the other side by the massive explosion last night on the 12 mile bridge connecting Crimea and Russia, which Putin opened in 2018. They can be resupplied only by ship.
In short, a grim situation. So grim, in fact, that the main divisions of the Russian army could actually just break and run.
Meanwhile the Russian mobilization has not gone smoothly, and it will take 3 months or so to get those new troops trained, equipped and deployed.
They don’t have 3 months. Russia could actually lose this war in the next 6 weeks.
So of course, ‘going nuclear’ is on the table. Putin explicitly threatening nuclear war is scary. It has to be taken seriously. But we also have to realize, if he can use nuclear blackmail to take Ukraine, he can use it to take Estonia, Latvia, even Finland.
So in response Biden dropped the A word (“Armageddon”) in a “gaffe” that wasn’t a gaffe at all. His message to Vlad is… ‘if you escalate to nukes, we’re not backing down.’ This is an ABSOLUTELY necessary message to send.
Probably the private message to Putin is, if Russia uses tactical nukes, we enter the war directly by securing Ukrainian airspace and creating a no-fly zone. We don’t need to respond with tactical nukes of our own, we are able to destroy all Russian ground targets with conventional weapons very quickly, and if he doesn’t back off, his Black Sea fleet would be next.
Their ONLY choice then is the big nukes. In his speech the other day, Putin tried to suggest that he’s that committed… that nutty. But he’s not that nutty.
Vlad doesn’t care who he kills… he DOES care how he’s remembered, especially in Russia. Ending Russia as a nation… and a significant portion of humanity… because you were absolutely wrong in your assessment of the (assumed) weaker opponent? That’s not how he wants to be remembered.
Vlad has fucked up. Badly. He built his whole schtick on an image of strength and invulnerability and competence that events on the battlefield have revealed to be utter bullshit.
Tucker Carlson, and the rest of the pro Putin wing of the GOP, have already started to clear throats, change the subject, and pretend they never slept with the guy.
Meanwhile, India and China are both increasingly expressing discomfort with the war, and do not openly support his claims to territory.
Putin has to worry about the anger building against him on his nationalist right, the plots against him by his Oligarchs (some of whom have been mysteriously falling out of windows recently). And the exodus of young men trying to flee his draft orders.
He’s facing uprisings and border wars in his Central Asian “security alliance” states, where his preoccupation with Ukraine has allowed China to move in to the vacuum. All of this is to say nothing of his isolation from the rest of the world, and the bite of international sanctions on his economy.
Happy 70th Birthday, Vlad.